Basically, there are two types of punters. Those who are concerned with probabilities and bet only according to their estimations and percentages, and those who blindly bet on outcomes they think will happen. The first group are commonly referred to as value bettors, due to their constant search of value,while the latter are called winner bettors, not because they win money, but for their style of betting, which sees them taking bets they think will win, often regardless of odds.
Of course, pure value betting, in it's basic theoretical form, is perfect: you need to place money on the odds that are incorrect and have been inflated by the bookmakers. But, this theoretically perfect system has it's problems in practice: making accurate estimations is a very difficult thing to do, and most of the guys that try to embrace the value betting system are lead by misconceptions that can be found everywhere on the Internet. So, the punters that will be referred to as 'value bettors' in the remainder of this article are actually punters who bet on what they think is value without having an actual mathematical model for calculating probabilities.
We all remember the moment - we've read an article by a self-proclaimed 'professional bettor', who told us all about value, and also taught us that we cannot make money betting on the top teams, as all of the public money will be on them. This kind of betting psilosophy has a large following in Asia, where thousands of punters bet going against that they believe is public money, following the so called 'heavy boat theory', which states the public money is always on the wrong side. And this is exactly the point where most of the inexperienced value bettors falter - public bets are not neccessarily bad ones.
Let's look at the most obvious example that will prove the 'heavy boat theory' wrong - Barcelona. The Catalan giants will always have a large following of bettors regardless of their actual form, and you will definitely lose while betting on them constantly for five or six seasons.
But what about last season? They were by far the best team in Europe, posting numerous high wins both home and away and covered Asian handicaps with ease - at least in the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, the bookies(as well as the punters) realized just how strong Barca are, and started giving us handicaps that corresponded to their strength, but at the beginning of the season, this wasn't the case.
On several occasions, you could've taken Barcelona at home with handicaps lower than -1.5, which was an absolute steal, having in mind how well they've done and the fact that an average handicap Barca had to cover at home in the second half of the season was -2.25. Someone who realized the immense strength of Barca early in the season could've made a lot of money betting on them, but once they started posting convincing wins and everyone realized their true strength, the value was gone. This example alone illustrates the true essence of betting:
The actual key to making money from betting isn't betting against 'public' teams - it is realizing the true state of a team before most of other punters do.
Of course, easier said than done. In order to realize the true state and potential of a team, you need to have an in depth knowledge of it's squad, the manager, his strengths and weaknesses, as well as other factors. This takes a lot of time and research, but most of punters won't manage to put the pieces of the jigsaw together even if they dedicate several hours a day to studying teams from their selected leagues. So how is it possible to win, then? We will show you.
The purpose of our website will be to help you break the cliche and help you turn into a winner. Apart from providing our paying members with our personal bets, will also be looking to raise the awareness and knowledge level of all of our readers, and help them stop making mistakes most of punters make.